The biggest fuel story in the world right now stems from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The 2026 Iran war, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026, has led to what may be the largest-ever supply disruption in the global oil market, triggering acute shortages and sharp price increases.
April is the critical month. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol called this the worst energy crisis in history, warning that April will be much worse than March — because in March, ships that had already transited the Strait before the war were still arriving at ports, but in April, there is nothing.
Jet fuel & diesel are the biggest problems. “The biggest problem today is the lack of jet fuel and diesel; we are seeing it already in Asia, but soon, in April or maybe beginning of May, it will come to Europe,” Birol said.
Airlines are already cutting flights. United Airlines will drop about 5% of planned flights during the second and third quarters of 2026, while average airfares last week hit $465 — the highest for the same period since at least 2019. Lufthansa also warned that jet fuel availability is already difficult at some airports in Asia, and the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the more critical the situation becomes.
Europe is running out fast. The last fuel tanker from Gulf countries is expected to arrive in Rotterdam on April 9, after which deliveries to Europe will be virtually halted. Shell’s CEO warned that Europe could face fuel shortages by April, and British supermarket chain Asda already reported shortages at its fuel stations.
It’s becoming an “everything crisis.” The conflict has crimped oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing global supply by about one-fifth — not just spiking fuel prices, but squeezing supplies of petrochemicals needed to make shoes, clothing, plastic bags, and more.
Asia-Pacific is hardest hit so far. UN estimates indicate oil prices have risen around 45% and gas by 55% since late February, with fertilizer prices up 35%. Regional inflation in Asia-Pacific could rise to 4.6% in 2026. In Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India, gas is being stolen and station workers have been killed over shortages and high prices.
Australia specifically is dealing with diesel anxiety — fuel prices at petrol and diesel stations started soaring in early March, partly driven by panic buying, with experts warning that higher diesel prices will lead to much higher food prices.